The 2nd Cut Newsletter: Edition #4
“The correctness of a decision can’t be judged from the outcome.” - Howard Marks
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Welcome back to The 2nd Cut Newsletter, Edition #4! Thank you all for reading and subscribing.
In today’s Newsletter: Club Fittings, Base Rates, Top Tweets, and more!
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Club Fitting
Last week I went to 2nd Swing in Columbia, MD to get my current clubs “optimized”. My swing has changed, plus I have a few clubs in the bag I bought stock (not fitted) so I wanted to get a check-up. I’ve been experiencing a few nagging issues:
Driver launching too high and spinning excessively leading to lost yardage.
My new 50-degree wedge pulling left consistently.
Putter grounding while I wrestle with the lie angle.
My fitter was Kevin Kraft. Kevin knows his stuff in and out, he’s a great golfer, patient, and there is no pressure or BS.
First up was the 50-degree. Kevin saw the problem immediately which was a +2 lie angle, and adjusted it down to match my other wedges. My first swing I could already tell the difference. Problem solved.
Next up was the driver. Kevin assured me the shaft was good, but wanted to adjust the club to be more upright, with less loft, and hopefully lower spin. After the adjustment, my spin rate dropped to around 2000 from north of 3000. The height of my drive went down 30ish feet and the distance improved by at least 15 yards.
Finally the putter. Kevin had me hit a few putts with my current putter. He adjusted the lie angle to match my more upright and over-the-ball stance. We then looked at my putts on their software, which tracks impact and roll. I was hitting my putts with too much loft. He adjusted the loft down and then we tried moving the ball closer to the middle of my stance. It finally felt like I wasn’t fighting the club. I’ve been putting great since the adjustment.
Getting properly fit really makes a tangible difference. It’s not magic (although it did feel like it), you still have to swing the club, but it’s one less variable to worry about on the course.
I highly recommend getting fitted and going to a 2nd Swing if you have one close by. If you are in Maryland look for Kevin Kraft at the Columbia store. If you don’t want to schedule a fitting, you can still walk in and try out any club in one of the many bays equipped with Trackman. Check out the link here.
Thanks, Kevin!
Base Rates
“A base rate is basically a distribution of past experiences given the same set of initial circumstances. Just understanding how things have unfolded for other people can be very helpful to understand how things might unfold for you or your object of interest.”
-Michael Mauboussin
Hopefully, I didn’t lose you there. Simply said, base rates are:
The likelihood of something happening.
Luckily in golf, we have base rates for just about every type of shot and situation.
Sure we can’t remember them all. I certainly don’t. But I have a vague idea of various shots that I find myself in frequently. Knowing them loosely helps me align expectations with reality and keep calm.
Here are a few stats you can keep in mind to help you on the course:
Tee Shots
Forget fairways hit. Overrated. The goal off the tee is to stay out of trouble and hit it as far as you can while achieving goal #1. As you can see in the graphic, hazards like trees, bunkers, and obviously OB/Water cost golfers > 1 shot. But hitting it in the light rough is only .3 shots. As mentioned in Daily Divot: Finding Fairways, a top amateur golfer has a 70-yard dispersion left to right with the driver.
Lesson: You can have a GREAT round hitting very few fairways.
Putting
In a recent Daily Divot on 8-foot putts, I discussed how knowing the odds of making an 8-foot putt can be freeing for a golfer. A 90’s golfer makes 27% from 8 feet. “Tiger misses almost half of his putts from 8 feet! So give yourself some slack.”
Around the Green
A 10-handicap approach shot from 25 yards off the green will average just under 20 feet from the hole. The odds of getting “up and down” (1 shot, 1 putt) is 26%. So roughly 1 out of 4 times they will get up and down. A scratch golfer it’s still less than 2 out of 4 times.
Approach Shots
Check out this article by Lou Stagner with Golf.com. He compares 6 shots from Pros vs Amateurs. As you can see above, a Pro averages almost 20 feet from the hole from 100 yards. A 10-handicap averages 39 feet.
Keep these stats in mind next you golf. Knowing them can lead to better decision-making, but they can also let you better match expectations with reality and in turn keep your cool.
*If you want more info on golf base rates read The Four Foundations of Golf, The Lowest Score Wins or Every Shot Counts
T2C Tweets of the Week
Mike Carroll of @Fit_For_Golf is an excellent source for all things golf fitness. In the above video, Mike goes over how to rehab golfers/tennis elbow. I highly recommend following him on Twitter for fitness advice and distance training.
Josh Nichols aka Mental Golf Coach (@joshlukenichols) touches on making emotional decisions, which I recently discussed in The Daily Divot: The Next Shot. We’ve all been there. I like how Josh says to “feel the emotion”. Don’t try to ignore the feeling. Accept it and move on.
Interesting Stat of the Week
According to Jared Doerfler, golf's popularity is growing. Year-to-date golf rounds are up 5.5% and in the Mid-Atlantic, rounds are up 21.7% in May! Anecdotally I couldn’t agree more. I’m seeing more and more people interested in the game.
Post Round Wrap Up:
Get fitted! It’s worth it.
Remember the core Base Rates. Give yourself some slack.
Don’t try to ignore the feeling. Accept it and move on.
Follow me on Twitter at @The2ndCut_t2c and on Instagram @The2ndCut_t2c
Thank you for reading The 2nd Cut Newsletter! I hope you enjoyed it and found something helpful for your golf game.
Til next time.