Avoiding Big Scores > Making Birdies
Yesterday, after Rory Mcilroy finished his first round, he sat at a respectable -1, his best opening round at Augusta in six years. Meanwhile, his group partner Scottie Scheffler finished -6, only one behind the leader.
When asked about Scottie in a post-round interview, here’s what Rory said:
“Scottie does such a good job of … it doesn’t look like it’s 6-under par, and then at the end of the day it’s 6-under par. He’s just so efficient with everything,”
“If you look at Scottie compared to the rest of the field, the amount of bogey-free rounds he plays and he shoots is phenomenal, and that’s the secret to winning major championships and winning big-time golf tournaments is more limiting the mistakes rather than making a ton of birdies.”
Of all the things Scottie does great, what stood out most to Rory was Scottie’s ability to avoid bogey! Not his towering drives, his ability to shape it either way, his approach shots, or his short game. It was his ability not to get himself in trouble.
And he’s right. Whether at Augusta or your local muni trying to break 100, the key to lower scores is avoiding the big numbers, NOT making more birdies.
Tiger and Jack are the two greatest golfers of all time. Sure, they were talented, but they were also incredibly conservative. They played the odds, giving themselves a margin of safety in case their shot didn’t reach the intended target.
The Math
Here’s a little snippet from “Avoiding Double Bogeys,” my most popular post ever that goes over the math of why Avoiding Doubles is > than More Birdies.
We have to get rid of the notion that birdies are what makes a good player. Understanding the math behind this can help us ingrain the concept and in turn, make it easier to apply on the course.
Here are a couple of charts explaining this concept in more detail:
As you can see in the chart above, birdies per round are not significantly different across handicap levels. Even pros average just 3.5 birdies per round.
But in this chart, we can see what really separates low-handicappers from high-handicappers. Double bogeys per round go up significantly. 4.5 more double bogeys for a 20 handicapper vs a 2 handicapper.
According to Lou Stagner (@loustagner), a scratch golfer averages 2.2 birdies per round, meanwhile a 20 handicap averages 0.3 birdies per round.
That means a scratch golfer averages just 2 birdies per round more than a 20 handicap… while averaging roughly 25 STROKES LESS.
So what am I trying to say? Avoiding doubles or worse is THE KEY to lowering your scores. Many of us intuitively understand this concept, but don’t actually apply it to our games.
Internalize It
The math is obvious, yet many don’t truly internalize it. Even the pros get caught trying to hunt pins and end up with a big score. I’m currently watching Round 2 of The Masters, and it’s amazing how many times some of these talents end up in bad situations due to poor course management.
If it’s good enough for Jack, Tiger and Scottie. It’s good enough for us.
For a comprehensive guide on course management tips, including advice on tee shots, approach shots, putting, avoiding trouble, and enhancing your mental game, be sure to check out the full post on Avoiding Double Bogeys.
Enjoy the rest of The Masters!
