Avoiding Double Bogeys

The Math Behind Avoiding Doubles, Better Course Management and Your Mental Game

Jul 28, 2023

Avoiding double bogeys might be one of the most important if not THE most important factor in lowering your scores. Too often our pursuit of birdies is the exact cause of our double bogeys.

Jon Sherman of Practical Golf likes to call this “the war on double bogeys”. I couldn’t agree with Jon more. In an old Daily Divot called “Avoiding Doubles” I used a quote from Jon’s book:

“No matter what level of golfer you are, one of the keys to improvement is limiting double bogeys (or worse). Many players assume that it’s more about making biridies and pars because those scores are more fun.”

In this piece, we’ll discuss the math behind why avoiding doubles is so important and then get into the how-to’s of course management, tee shots, approach shots, putting, and finally the mental game.

Understanding The Math

We have to get rid of the notion that birdies are what makes a good player. Understanding the math behind this can help us ingrain the concept and in turn, make it easier to apply on the course.

Here are a couple of charts explaining this concept in more detail:

As you can see in the chart above, birdies per round are not significantly different across handicap levels. Even pros average just 3.5 birdies per round.

But in this chart, we can see what really separates low-handicappers from high-handicappers. Double bogeys per round go up significantly. 4.5 more double bogeys for a 20 handicapper vs a 2 handicapper.

According to Lou Stagner (@loustagner), a scratch golfer averages 2.2 birdies per round, meanwhile a 20 handicap averages 0.3 birdies per round.

That means a scratch golfer averages just 2 birdies per round more than a 20 handicap… while averaging roughly 25 STROKES LESS.

So what am I trying to say? Avoiding doubles or worse is THE KEY to lowering your scores. Many of us intuitively understand this concept, but don’t actually apply it to our games.

It’s kind of like sleep. We all know the science behind how important sleep is. We know we should get at least 7 to 8 hours a night, but we still don’t do it. You have to be intentional.

Now that we understand the math let’s get into HOW we can help avoid doubles.

*Quick Sidenote: If you are a higher handicapper and are reading this saying “I double all the time!” Don’t get discouraged. It’s not about eliminating doubles but reducing them. And if you are trying to break 100 maybe it’s eliminating double pars or triple bogeys. Don’t worry about doubles as much as the concept of reducing big scores. This concept applies to all levels.

Course Management

Course management is one of the best and easiest ways to avoid big numbers and lower your scores. It requires no swing changes, and no improvement in your technique, it simply requires better decision-making and an understanding of probabilities.

Tee Shots:

As we’ve talked about before our tee shots will vary greatly in dispersion. Check out the Daily Divot: Finding Fairways for a quick refresher.

The goal of your tee shot should be hitting it as far as you can while avoiding trouble. If there is water on the right, avoid it at all costs! That means shifting your aim to maybe include the left side rough.

This is what I said in Edition #4 on base rates:

“Forget fairways hit. Overrated. The goal off the tee is to stay out of trouble and hit it as far as you can while achieving goal #1. As you can see in the graphic, hazards like trees, bunkers, and obviously OB/Water cost golfers > 1 shot. But hitting it in the light rough is only .3 shots. As mentioned in Daily Divot: Finding Fairways, a top amateur golfer has a 70-yard dispersion left to right with the driver.”

How many times do you get up to the tee box and aim for the middle of the fairway? <Hand up here> By being smarter with your tee shot target selection we can help reduce bigger scores by avoiding fairway bunkers, ob, and water off the tee.

A little trick is to tee up on the same side of the tee box as the trouble. So if there’s water on the left, I’ll tee up on the left side of the tee box, and slightly turn my body away from the water. This shifts my dispersion area away from the hazard and gives me a bigger margin for error.

Approach Shots:

Aim at the center of the green with a slight bias towards the backside yardage. This allows for your natural left-to-right dispersion to have the highest chance of landing on the green.

Why should we aim slightly toward the back yardage? As you can see below, most amateurs tend to miss greens on the front side (where the trouble often is) and rarely ever miss long.

Your sole goal on approach shots is to get on the green and avoid trouble. Forget the flag!

This quote is from Edition #1:

Scottie Scheffler led the tour in both par-3 scoring average and in greens in regulation last season. That's not a coincidence. I asked him about his strategy earlier this year, and his advice was simple: Forget the pin. Aim at the middle. Don't be tempted by anything else.
"I'm almost always aiming slightly away from the pin," he says. "It's a very rare occasion that I'm aiming anywhere near a pin on the short side of the green."

There are some caveats:

If there is trouble long, but the front of the green is safe, take less club.

Within 100 yards you can start to aim closer to the hole.

There are situations where the optimal decision falls in line with aiming for the flag. Obviously, if the pin is in the middle or middle back. Or maybe the flag is on the left side, but there’s no trouble and there is a bunker on the right. In this situation aiming at the flag is the optimal decision.

Your club selection should be based on avoiding trouble and getting the ball on the putting surface. If it’s good enough for Scottie it’s good enough for all of us.

Putting:

On long putts, our goal should be to avoid 3 putts (or 4 putts for some of us). That means focusing on distance control and trying to get the ball in an imaginary circle around the pin on longer putts.

I think most amateurs focus too much on break and technique, but lose focus of the target and distance control. Pick the break and commit to it. Now focus on nothing but the target and getting the distance correct.

Bonus tip: In Edition #2 we talked about putting vs chipping. TLDR: If you are slightly off the green put away that wedge and take out your putter!

Trouble:

As we’ve already discussed, avoiding trouble is key to lowering scores. But there are times when it can’t be avoided and what we do from various hazards is the difference between saving bogey and big scores.

Imagine you’re behind a tree, 150 yards out with a 3-foot gap below a branch. You also have a wide-open punch out to the fairway that would leave you 125 yards out.

How often do you choose the 3-foot gap? What are the odds you hit it through that gap? And even if you do get it through will you get on the green? What happens if you don’t succeed?

Too often we’re trying to make up for past shots or refusing to give up our hopes for birdie or par. The smart play is generally the right play. Pitch the ball into the fairway and get the ball on the green from there. You are much more likely to avoid a big score. It’s boring, but it works. You might even have a chance at par still!

The same goes for deep rough or fairway bunkers. The goal here needs to be to get out of trouble and try to save Bogey. Don’t get fancy. Play the odds.

Mental Game

The other important factor in avoiding big scores is your mental game. How many times have you looked back on your round and an 8 is staring back at you? I know for me, in hindsight, it’s usually because I gave up or lost focus out of frustration.

I used to (and sometimes still do) fall victim to giving up on a hole. Maybe you hit a crappy tee shot, shank an iron in the bunker, and then hit a crappy sand shot greenside in the rough.

Sure it felt like crap, but you are lying 3! You can still get up and down for bogey.

But in this scenario, how many times do you quickly walk up to your ball in frustration and rush your next shot? You duff the chip onto the green. And now you're really pissed. You rush your next putt and end up 3 putting for a 7. That triple could have easily been a bogey or double if you just took a step back and focused.

That’s 1 or 2 strokes just from frustration. If that happens 4 or 5 times a round that’s the difference of 5 to 10 strokes!

Of course, this is easier said than done. But you can get better at maintaining composure. You can take pride in turning a crappy hole into a bogey despite some terrible shots. Grind it out.

As I said in the Daily Divot: “The Next Shot”,

Whatever you did on the last shot is irrelevant to the next shot. Focus on the current situation and make the best decision going forward.”

Conclusion

I really believe with better course management and an improved mental approach you can reduce your scores by at least 5 strokes if not more. And that is without any improvement in your actual golf skills, ball striking, or technique.

If you are interested in a deeper dive into course management I highly recommend reading Jon Sherman’s book, The Four Foundations of Golf.

Post Round Wrap Up

Understand the Math! Avoiding Doubles > Making Birdies
Aim away from trouble on your tee shots. Stop worrying about fairways
Aim for the center of the green, slightly back, and away from trouble. Stop aiming at flags
Don’t try to be a hero out of trees, sand, etc. Be smart, take the high-probability shot
Keep your head in the game. Every hole and every shot counts. It’s the difference between breaking 80/90/100 and not

That’s all I got for today. If you have any questions or comments send me an email at the2ndcut@substack.com or comment below.

Til next time.